Fantasy Football

FPL Analysis: What five seasons’ of data modelling have revealed about predictive analysis, fixture impact and optimal team structure in Fantasy Premier League

Introduction ­Long-time readers of Mathematically Safe will remember that my first forays in the world of FPL analysis was a piece after the 2015/16 season when I correlated underlying player statistics (such as shots, passes, etc.) with the actual points scored by a player. Back then, I had just two seasons worth of data, so… Continue reading FPL Analysis: What five seasons’ of data modelling have revealed about predictive analysis, fixture impact and optimal team structure in Fantasy Premier League

Fantasy Football

FPL strategy: why it may be advantageous to play the triple captain chip before December

Note: Since posting (all of 20 mins ago) I’ve been lead to believe that it is probably more likely that there will be an additional double gameweek than I originally believed. So I’ll be finding out a bit more before going ahead with any TC decision, and I suggest the reader does too. But I’ll… Continue reading FPL strategy: why it may be advantageous to play the triple captain chip before December

Fantasy Football

The “new manager bounce”: does it exist in FPL?

Pre-season is a turbulent time for the FPL manager. The accumulated knowledge that has been gathered over the season is immediately rendered void as the final whistles go on gameweek 38. Nothing you know or have learned will be relevant in August because the Premier League landscape will be completely different due to a multitude… Continue reading The “new manager bounce”: does it exist in FPL?

Uncategorized

The Football League: Analysis of historical league positions

A couple of years ago my dad retired. As you’d probably expect from a man who suddenly has around 50 extra hours free in the week, his mind has been afforded the space to think about the important things in life. A Northampton Town season ticket holder, he keeps a spreadsheet of every Northampton player’s… Continue reading The Football League: Analysis of historical league positions

Fantasy Football

FPL analysis: the impact of fixtures on player performance

At the end of the 2017/18 Fantasy Premier League season I found my enthusiasm waning somewhat. I went into the final run of games quite dejected at my team’s performance over a season in which I was hoping to build upon 2016/17’s overall rank of 16k but found myself repeatedly languishing just outside the top… Continue reading FPL analysis: the impact of fixtures on player performance

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) 2018/19: Three-Way Budget Defender Rotation

Long time readers will remember (maybe) that for the last couple of seasons I have attempted a three-way defensive rotation strategy in defensive to make use of the budget defenders by ensuring that at least one of the three has a favourable fixture most weeks. If I’m honest I probably won’t be following that same… Continue reading Fantasy Premier League (FPL) 2018/19: Three-Way Budget Defender Rotation

Fantasy Football · Premier League

At-a-glance: the end of the Premier League season from an FPL perspective

Just a quick piece this, but in among all the planning for the final few weeks of the season I’ve created an at-a-glance guide for myself to assess where my attention should be focused. I thought it would be worth sharing. Note: there are numerical justifications behind some of this but it is mixed with… Continue reading At-a-glance: the end of the Premier League season from an FPL perspective